As 2022 nears its end, talk about the film awards season revs up. It can be overwhelming—thankfully, Rory Doherty gives a concise breakdown of the major upcoming film award ceremonies, hot favourites, and what might reflect the 2023 Academy Awards.
Three months before the actual ceremony, Oscar talk is starting to trickle into wrap-up pieces and best-of-year discussions. It won’t be long before we reach the 1.5 months that are dominated by film-lovers’ chatter of those golden statuettes, as nominations hit on 24 January. But there’s a long road until we get there, and the next month will determine what chances all our faves have of appearing in the Academy’s shortlist.
Overwhelmed by all the critic bodies, the telecast schedules, and the plethora of deserving talent? We’re breaking down awards season right here.
Triangle of Sadness
What’s Happened Already
The big film festivals don’t often overlap with the Academy’s nominations (Parasite was only the second Palme d’Or winner to scoop Best Picture), but you never know when mutual voting bodies shine to the same film. This year’s Palme went to Triangle of Sadness, a crowd-pleasing satire of the uber-wealthy, and like a lot of obscure films, it may net a Best Screenplay nomination to commend its brazen, fresh voice.
Taking place in September, Venice’s premieres usually kick off the prestigious movie season in terms of US releases, and its top award went to All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, a queer art and opioid crisis story that’s a favourite for Best Documentary.
But industry awards have already taken place, starting to build the momentum towards the Academy’s announcement. Specialist awards, like the British Independent Film Awards and the Gotham awards (celebrating films with lower budgets, under $35 million) have picked out underdogs in the race, like Aftersun and Everything Everywhere All at Once—meaning Ke Huy Quan has become the favourite for the Oscars’ Best Supporting Actor. But heavy hitters like Tár are also in the fight, meaning the tug-of-war between EEAAO and Tár has properly kicked off—cementing Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett as favourites for Best Actress.
The indie circuit crown jewel, the Film Independent Spirit Awards, will take place in March but have announced their suitably eclectic nominations, featuring heaps of outside chances and overlooked talent. As waves of critic bodies across the world announce their favourites, we’re getting a good idea of the international mood.
Everything Everywhere All at Once
What’s Coming Up Before Oscars
Before the Oscars, the big hitters are as follows: Golden Globes (10th January), Critics Choice Awards (15th January), BAFTAs (19th February), Screen Actors Guild Awards (26th February).
The Golden Globes are attempting a comeback this year, after extensive scandal when it was revealed their voting body, the exclusive Hollywood Foreign Press Association, had no Black members. They also received a slew of allegations about self-dealing, a lack of impartiality, and other ethical grey areas. Their telecast has been boycotted for a couple years, but are now staging a dubious comeback, one that Best Actor frontrunner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) has stressed he will not be attending, due to their lack of accountability or apology for him being sexually assaulted by one of their members.
The Critics Choice Awards, a much more respectable platform, release their nominations in December. Despite having a notably different voting membership to the Academy, the CCAs are a great indication of where the Academy will land (they might even influence it)—at last year’s CCAs, the winners for Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and every acting award was the same as the Oscars. You’d be wise to keep January 15th’s winners in your mind when picking Oscar favourites.
After years of trying to mimic the Oscars and in the process not nominating any people of colour, the BAFTAs have undergone substantial renovation in the last few years. They’ve expanded and altered their selection process; now lots of categories will be decided by specialist juries. It’s a welcome change not just for highlighting the diverse, brilliant range of talent on offer, but for shining a light on low-profile and British hopefuls who just don’t get love from other larger awards bodies—helping the BAFTAs carve out an independent identity instead of hanging on the Academy’s coattails.
Aftersun
There’s still change that needs to happen, but it’s proven a refreshing alternative to the sameness that dominates awards season, shown by last year’s Best Actress winner Joanna Scanlan for After Love, a lauded performance that was just overshadowed by bigger names. Expect a lot of Aftersun plaudits here, as well as some outsider noms.
The Screen Actors Guild Awards are some of the most respected actor awards in the industry calendar, voted for by people who know a lot about respecting actors. The nominations, and even winners, should hew very closely to the Academy’s—the locks for Lead Actor should be Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), while Actress should be Cate Blanchett, Michelle Yeoh, and Danielle Deadwyler (Till).
As for the others? Anyone from Bill Nighy (Living) to Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway) could crop up. Also pay attention to the Outstanding Performance by a Cast—this ensemble award is a good indicator of Best Picture noms and even wins.
While we often have to wait until January—and even February—to catch all the Oscar hopefuls, it’s safe to say this year’s nominees will be jammed with incredible talent. Look forward to Sarah Polley’s Women Talking, Todd Field’s Tár (both Best Director and Screenplay frontrunners) in the coming months, and if you want to stay on top of everything, Variety, Rotten Tomatoes, and AwardsWatch are all dependable awards outlets. Dust off your bowtie, keep an eye on the odds, and most importantly—enjoy some really good movies.
